The Global Carbon Project has announced its carbon budget for 2022, the annual scientific assessment of the global carbon cycle. Accordingly, the most recent data show no signs of much-needed reductions in global CO2 emissions.
According to the assessment, fossil carbon emissions are expected to increase by more than 1 percent (36.6 billion tons of CO2 ) in 2022 and total emissions (including land use change emissions) will be approximately at pre-pandemic levels in 2019. So the authors conclude that if current emission levels continue, we have a 50 percent chance of exceeding 1.5°C of global warming in nine years.
In analysis; Turkey, with 1.2 percent of global emissions in 2021, is the 14th country in the world to cause the most emissions. Looking at carbon emissions per capita, Turkey ranks above the world average with 5.3 tons of carbon emissions per year.
The 2022 picture for major emitter countries differs: emissions will fall in China (0.9 percent) and the EU (0.8 percent), increase in the USA (1.5 percent) and India (6 percent), The rest is expected to increase by 1.7 percent in total.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the Exeter Global Systems Institute, who led the research, said: "This year, we are seeing another increase in global fossil CO2 emissions while we need a rapid decline. There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 need to take meaningful action so that we have a chance to limit global warming to close to 1.5°C. Global Carbon Budget figures are tracking progress on climate action and are currently not seeing the action needed.” made the statement.
Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the UEA School of Environmental Sciences, said: "Our findings reveal the turbulence in emissions patterns from the pandemic and global energy crises this year. If governments respond by accelerating investments in clean energy and planting trees rather than cutting them down, global emissions could begin to decline rapidly. We are at a crossroads and we must not let events in the world distract us from the urgent and continuing need to reduce our emissions to stabilize the global climate and mitigate rising risks.”
Carbon sequestration through reforestation or new forests offsets half of the deforestation emissions, and researchers note that stopping deforestation and increasing efforts to regenerate and expand forests represent a huge opportunity to reduce emissions and increase carbon sequestration in forests.
The Global Carbon Budget report predicts atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million by 2022, more than 50 percent above pre-industrial levels.
Source:Global Carbon Budget-Emissions Are Not Declining